The inspiration for my writing today comes from the song title “One Step Closer” by Linkin Park. The song itself could be used as an anger anthem for the frustrations of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals. As the late Chester Bennington noted in the song, “(he was) one step closer to the edge, and (he’s) about to break”. But that is not the full rationale behind using this song title. True, I’d be lying to myself if I didn’t say I wasn’t a little frustrated at not making a run to the Stanley Cup Finals.
But I view this as a potential final step before making that magical run. Over the years, there have been several younger teams that needed to go through the struggles and grind of the playoffs before they finally make their run. A team near to me comes to mind – I have been a longtime fan of the Baltimore Ravens in the NFL. From 2008-2013, the Baltimore Ravens made a run in the playoffs each of those years, capping things off with a Super Bowl win in the 2012-2013 season. The road it took to get there the seasons prior to that Super Bowl win:
- ’08 - ‘09 – Conference Championship loss (tough year for the teams I follow)
- ’09 - ‘10 – Divisional Round loss
- ’10 - ‘11 – Divisional Round loss
- ’11 - ‘12 – Conference Championship loss
Sound familiar? It
should. Most up and coming teams must go
through their share of trials before they make that run to a championship. The Tampa Bay Lightning is also a team that
lost for several years in the playoffs prior to making back-to-back Stanley Cup
championship seasons – the season prior to their first Stanley Cup, they won the
Presidents Trophy and were promptly bounced in the first round. So, while there may be some frustration of a
missed opportunity, I see this as the final, gut-wrenching step before we make
our run. In my eyes, we are one step
closer to that ultimate prize.
As for the series itself – I have tried to explain it the best I can and the only way I know how to adequately talk about it is to remind myself just how close this series was to going the other way. I have talked with some friends that aren’t heavy hockey fans but showed an interest because they know I am a Carolina Hurricanes fan; I got the feeling they believe it is sour grapes on my end that we got swept. I may be a little bitter, but I am not wrong in my assessment – this series was close. My response – this series was like getting beat by a buzzer-beater 3 out of the 4 games (if you think about it in basketball terms). The other game (the one that wasn’t a buzzer-beater) can only be described as a strong defensive game that was a close loss (if you’re thinking about it in basketball terms). Four one goal games – that’s extremely close. Almost like the Ravens getting beat in the ’11 – ’12 Conference Championship game – only that was a last-minute touchdown and missed field goal. In each case, both were tough ways to end a season.
The Panthers and Hurricanes were nearly mirror images of each other, from the heavy forechecking each team employs to the reliance on tough defense and a knack for forcing the other team into a mistake due to the nature of the game each play. Play fast, force quick decisions which can lead to potential turnovers and goals. It took 4 overtimes in game one, but eventually the Canes broke, and we turned it over in our end (Slavin and Burns) and ended up giving up the game winning goal on a turnover in our end. Initially, I thought the referee was in the way of the clearing chance, but the Florida forward stole the puck – it was a great pressure play by them that led to that goal.
Game two also went into overtime – that one was a wild finish. Slavin (again) loses his stick while trying to kill a penalty and his stick goes right into Burns’s skate, turning a 5 on 4 into a de facto 5 on 2. Nobody was there to defend the players in front of the net…game over.
I don’t blame Slavin or Burns for either of those losses. Florida created their chance for that game winning goal in Game 1. Game 2 was a fluke situation and capitalized on the opportunity. That said, we had our chances and were mere inches from going to Florida with a 2-0 series lead against the hottest goalie on the planet.
- In Game 1, Seth Jarvis blasts a shot right past Bobrovsky that nails the cross bar and bounces off. If that shot is an inch lower, that’s a good goal and a game winner.
- In Game 1, Jordan Staal has a wrap around opportunity in overtime that is wedged between Bobrovsky’s skate and the glove side post. If that shot is a fraction of a second sooner, that is the game winner.
- In Game 2, Teuvo Teravainen slams a shot from point blank range that Bobrovsky inexplicably comes across to save. If that shot is an inch higher or even a split-second sooner, that goal is a game winner.
Those are just a couple of the many chances we had in both those games to come out on top. In the end, puck luck was not on our side, and Florida took care of business with their opportunities. After those two games, I heard a lot of talk about our lack of scoring and a lack of a true finisher. I agree that we didn’t have that – I disagree that we needed that. We had plenty of chances that rang posts/crossbars or were saved (magnificently) by Sergei Bobrovsky. Ask Mitch Marner or Austin Matthews if lack of a scorer was the difference in their series with Florida.
Game 3 was a defensive slug fest, being won by a power play goal on what some call a weak slash penalty. We had three such penalties like that in the 2nd period of that game. I’ll say this – I don’t blame the referees for the outcome, but I would have loved a little consistency on what/how things were called. All told, both teams had 14 power play opportunities in the series. Florida converted four (3 game winners) and we converted two. For much of the season and in the playoffs, our penalty kill had been lights out – in this series, 10 for 14 isn’t going to get it done. Regardless of what is called or why things are called a certain way, you still have to go out and get your job done. Credit Florida for getting the job done on their chances.
Game 3 also saw our share of chances:
- Brett Pesce hit not one but two posts in this game – both were lasers shot and got past Bobrovsky only to hit the post and ricochet off.
- Sebastian Aho had a cage nearly wide open and Bobrovsky punched that puck right out of the air with his blocker side fist. He lost his blocker in the process, and we had the puck in their zone for about a minute before the Panthers were able to clear, and he was able to get his blocker back. Great save on Aho, missed opportunity in a 1-0 game.
We couldn’t solve Bobrovsky and that ended up being the difference (along with their relentless defense over the final 6 minutes of that game – we couldn’t get any clear lanes or open looks).
Game 4, the Canes started slow, giving up a couple goals in the first 10 or so minutes that ultimately haunted us. We finally started to get some breaks our way with the puck (Statsny nailed another post but was able to get the rebound that was behind Bobrovsky and bury it). The key difference for me in this game was that we were getting to some of the dirty areas and cleaning up the garbage in front – both Jesper Fast and Teuvo Teravainen scored goals right in front of the net. Ultimately, Matthew Tkachuk buried a power play goal with 4.9 seconds left and that was it – the season was over.
Both games in Florida were decided in regulation, both 1 goal games. Game 4 was a microcosm of the series. Two teams evenly matched – one team just got the better end of it in the end.
Some numbers on how even this series was:
- Florida did beat Carolina in 5-on-5 goals – by a total of 6 to 4 – over 4 games. That’s insanely good defense and impressive goal tending by both teams.
- Through the first three games, Bobrovsky saved 97.8% of the shots he saw. If he were to give up the game winners in each of the first three games – he still would have had a 95.6% save percentage.
- In contrast, Freddie Andersen had a save percentage of 94.8% in the two games he played (out of the first three). Had he not given up the two game winners (in games 1 and 3), he would have had…a 97.4% save percentage. What I am trying to say is that both goalies were playing out of their minds the first three games of this series.
- The first two rounds of the playoffs, the Hurricanes averaged 3.64 goals per game (and 4.8 goals per game in the 2nd round alone). We averaged 1.5 goals per game in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The clear difference in the series was Sergei Bobrovsky. Without his elite goal tending in this series, I believe the Hurricanes are still playing and on their way to the Stanley Cup Finals. I mention we hit a lot of posts – and we did. Like, it was kind of the ongoing joke this series. We don’t hit a lot of those posts if Sergei Bobrovsky isn’t taking away shooting space from us – that is a credit to his play in net. Without all those posts, they don’t get out of this series a winner.
The story of this series wasn’t the lack of goal scorers for the Carolina Hurricanes. It wasn’t about what Don Waddell did or didn’t do at the trade deadline. Over the years, I have been a little skeptical of what we have tried to accomplish during free agency or during the trade deadline. Looking holistically at what we have attempted to accomplish during those time frames, and considering what we did and what was done by these “high caliber” scorers that were available at the deadline, I think Don did what he should have done during that stretch – we brought in Gostisbehere and took a low-level gamble on Puljujarvi. Gostisbehere fit like a glove, JP didn’t provide much impact other than a 4th line body that was required to play up and down the lineup after Svechnikov was injured for the season. The argument for staying with the group you have is you don’t want to mess with the chemistry of the group. I think that was the right decision – I stood by that decision at the time and I still stand by that move.
The reason this series was lost – a hot goaltender, some tough puck luck, and (probably most importantly) we lost far more 50/50 battles for pucks than we should have – especially at home. We ran into a buzz saw in Sergei Bobrovsky the first three games of the series and, while we found some light in game four, it was too little too late given our tough start and the depth of how much we were down in the series (losing Slavin, Noesen as well).
It also can’t be understated enough the missed opportunities at home – it seemed as though anytime there was a 50/50 battle for a puck, Florida was on it. It wasn’t a lack of effort on our end – Florida was just prepared. Credit to the staff for getting their boys ready and for their team buying into the game plan and how to beat us.
Congratulations to the Florida Panthers for a great series and to the Carolina Hurricanes for a great season. While the series was a sweep, my hope is that it will be remembered by how closely played the games were and how incredible the defense and goaltending was throughout. I know that is how I will remember it. My real hope is that this is the final sting in a series of playoff exits that ends up paying long term dividends with the core group we have. If history is any indicator, it could very well be.
