It was March 8, 2024 when things got exciting as a Carolina Hurricanes fan last season. We were officially going for it. Our leadership, after years of making modest deals at the deadline, decided it was time to make a move to go for it. Jake Guentzel was coming to Carolina.
The fit was great! He
immediately gelled with Sebastian Aho, which wound up being a potent 1-2 punch
through the remainder of the season and into the playoffs. Sadly, our season ended in Game 6 against the
New York Rangers, free agency happened and as quickly as Jake entered our
lives, he was gone.
Disappointment set in, as Jake decided to leave Raleigh and
head to the friendly confines of Tampa, Florida – equipped with new linemates
Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point as well as a $0 state income tax. Who knows the ultimate reasons why he left – maybe
it was the state income tax or the linemates as mentioned. Maybe it had to do with the system fit. Who knows the true reasons? But he was gone.
As people smarter than me have said, though – good is sometimes
the enemy of great. The Carolina
Hurricanes pulled off a stunner in the early evening of Friday night when they made
a deal with the Colorado Avalanche and Chicago Blackhawks to acquire Mikko Rantanen
(COL) and Taylor Hall (CHI) for Martin Necas, Jack Drury and three draft picks. The inspiration for this blog comes from the
song “Electric Feel” by MGMT, because frankly, this feels like an electric jolt
to the organization.
The breakdown of the deal is highlighted below:
- Carolina Receives: Mikko Rantanen (1/2 salary), Taylor Hall, Nils Juntorp
- Colorado Receives: Martin Necas, Jack Drury, 2025 2nd rounder, 2026 4th rounder
- Chicago Receives: 3rd rounder, ½ of Rantanen salary retained
The move sets the stage for a legitimate Stanley Cup run
this season and puts us in the driver’s seat to get a longer-term deal done
with Rantanen, who is a perennial 100-point player. Partner him alongside fellow Fin Sebastian Aho,
and Aho could be in for a career year himself.
Sebastian Aho, for his part this season, has been a point
per game player already, playing alongside the likes of Jack Roslovic, Andrii
Svechnikov and Jackson Blake. And while
I like what each of those players have done at certain stretches of time
through the season, Jack Roslovic and Andrii Svechnikov are going through it a
little bit currently, and Jackson Blake is a rookie. This move is a huge upgrade for Seabass and is as
much of an investment in the team and our ability to run down a Stanley Cup as
it is a nod to Sebastian Aho and giving him a high-level partner on his line
that is a proven producer.
As for the second part of this deal for Carolina – Taylor Hall
was someone I was quietly interested in at the deadline as a middle tier,
middle six player that could provide a little bit of offensive spark. Chicago was reportedly floating his name out
there for only a 3rd rounder, which is precisely what we gave up for
him. Chicago didn’t have to retain any
of his salary, but did have to retain half of Rantanen’s this season as the price
of doing business.
Hall hasn’t had the best of seasons in Chicago but looking
back at his time in a good system in Boston, he played responsibly and put up
solid numbers in a 2nd line role.
Taylor is one of two players who may get a crack at the top line to flank
Aho and play opposite Rantanen. The
other would be one Andrii Svechnikov, who has played solidly recently, but hasn’t
produced the way you would like to see in the box score. If something isn’t clicking on the left side,
Taylor Hall can be inserted and possibly be that producer he has been in the past. Perhaps this move unlocks Svechnikov, though,
and his production starts to increase (both 5-on-5 and on the power play, where
Rantanen is almost assuredly set to slot in where Necas was).
Speaking of Necas, this trade means the end of the Martin Necas
era in Carolina. Over the years, I have
been a Necas fan and have supported keeping him here in Raleigh. Coming into the season, I thought this would
be a make-or-break year for him. Speaking
with Greg Wyshynski of ESPN before the season began, he and I agreed that Necas could
be a potential trade candidate given his extra year of term, his overall value
to other teams across the league and how the organization and he had to mend
fences over the offseason. To Necas’s
credit, he delivered high-level play early on and proved his value. He and Eric Robinson have played great together
playing with Jesperi Kotkaniemi recently, building some good chemistry as a
unit (as noted in a couple recap blogs). At the time of the deal, Necas was our team
leader in points with 55 (16 G, 39 A).
All of that to say – Mikko is a clear upgrade on the right-hand
side of the ice for us. He will slot in
as the top line Right Winger, a place where Martin Necas never did get
comfortable (Jackson Blake was playing up in that spot instead). Necas will likely slot in with Nathan MacKinnon
on the Avalanche top line and should provide ridiculous speed (and hopefully finish)
for that unit.
The other piece to the deal heading to Colorado is Jack
Drury, who I have enjoyed watching in a Carolina Hurricanes sweater. He’s been a monster in the face-off circle,
winning at a 59% clip, facing off typically against the 3rd or 4th
best on the opposition. Against whomever,
a nearly 3:2 advantage winning face-offs isn’t something to be ignored. The production piece has been a bit of an issue of late. He missed some time but hasn’t had a goal or
assist since his assist on December 5th against…the Colorado Avalanche. He does a lot of good things on the ice that
doesn’t hit the stat sheet, though, and I expect he’ll be a solid 3rd
line center for the Avs.
My expectation is that Jack Roslovic will take over our 4th
line center responsibilities. Alongside
him could be a potential mixed bag – Will Carrier is injured and will be out
for a couple months at least, but I would expect him to be a part of that 4th
line grouping when he returns. Where
everyone else slots in remains to be seen.
One name that didn’t move but was rumored to be out there
and was mistakenly reported as being part of this trade early on was Jesperi
Kotkaniemi. KK has played extremely well
these last few games and overall, most of the season. He has started producing, getting to the right
areas to bang home goals and has done a great job with Robinson this season
getting to the dirty areas to dig out pucks, using his frame well. We have some options with him – he has a team
friendly deal (in my opinion) and is someone with size that is prime for the 3C
duties. As it stands right now, he would
be slotted with Eric Robinson (which has been a solid partner with him) and probably
Taylor Hall to start. This line could
have some moving parts, though, as we work to see what combinations make sense.
The big trick here is getting Mikko Rantanen signed long
term. It is no secret that Sebastian Aho
and he are good friends. The word is
that he was looking at Leon Draisaitl type money, about $14M per year. If the masses knew that, my hope would be
that Eric Tulsky has this knowledge. I
am sure he does, as Tulsky is a dude that plays 3-D chess when everyone else is
playing checkers. Case in point – to not
have to give up a 1st rounder or a high-end prospect (Nikishin, Morrow,
Nadeau) in this deal for someone of Rantanen’s skill is borderline robbery and
malpractice on the part of the Avalanche.
Necas is a high-level player, but I would have expected more draft capital
or another big-time prospect to pull this one off. The Avalanche did have some cap crunch
issues, so I get the urgency to do a deal for them. Still, for us to be in that sort of position
to bring in a player of Rantanen’s caliber and not have to really lose any
major piece of the pool of assets and talent is impressive.
We have until the trade deadline (March 7th) to
get an extension in place, so the clock is ticking. Considering the salary cap is going up (some say
as much as 4-5M next season, although I am not convinced of that) a larger deal
to retain him for term in his prime to go along with fellow Fin’s Sebastian Aho and
Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Andrii Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis would be a wise move –
and from the looks of it, we’ll have the cap space to do it. With Jackson Blake and, likely, Bradley
Nadeau up and coming with our forward grouping as well, this has the makings of
the official opening of the Cup window for the Canes.
No comments:
Post a Comment