Come As You Are

In keeping with tradition, for any ‘non-recap’ blogs, I take a song from my Top 1000 Alternative Music list as my basis for inspiration.  Today was tough to decide – it needed to be right.  As I scrolled, I found plenty of potentials until I landed on “Come As You Are” by Nirvana.  This one seemed appropriate.  Today, we are going to discuss Mikko Rantanen.

Before I dive in, I want to point out a few basic facts about the situation that I think everyone can agree on (consider this the opening guitar intro to the blog title song) …

1. Mikko Rantanen is a fantastic hockey player that brings a lot of skill and size to the line-up.  His production, play and past success speak for itself.
2. Mikko Rantanen has been with the team for 10 games as of this writing and has played in 9 of those games. 
3. Mikko Rantanen has been with the Carolina Hurricanes since January 24 and has played in Raleigh a grand total of 4 times – that is 4 home games in 35 days. 
4. Mikko Rantanen played his first 10 seasons in Colorado, the organization that drafted him.  Colorado runs a different system than we do in Carolina.

None of these things are a secret – they are all factual pieces of information that cannot be disputed. 

It was also reported that the Carolina Hurricanes have approached Mikko Rantanen with an 8 year by $100 million plus contract.  While I can’t explicitly say that I know this to be fact (I’m not an insider), there are some pretty prominent voices in the hockey circles that I trust that are reporting it.  Therefore, I am going to go on with the assumption that it has some truth to it. 

“Come – as you are, as you were, as I want you to be…”

As a fan of the team, I still can’t fully put into words the excitement I felt the night we made a move to snare Mikko.  And, truth be told, I am still beyond excited to have him in a Hurricanes sweater. 

Two of the things that stand out to me as it relates to the fit with the team are his size and his ability to bury the puck.  This is what we, as Hurricanes fans, have been dying for over the last several seasons.  I can’t tell you how many times I have heard the words ‘we really need someone that can put the puck in the back of the net’ or ‘we could really use a sniper’.  Mikko Rantanen does that. 

I have heard plenty of people make mention of Martin Necas’s hot start in Colorado and Mikko’s slower start.  A lot of people have talked about it being a system thing, or a Mikko doesn’t like it here thing.  Or, how about this – Colorado won the deal.  To say those things in a vacuum is one thing – and in that small sample size, I would agree.  But that’s just it – this is a very small sample size.  I said it on the podcast and I’ll repeat it – I fully expected Martin Necas to come out of the gate quicker than Mikko would from a production perspective, just because Necas fits the style of play for Colorado well and for Mikko, it would be an adjustment.  From a point production perspective, I was right – but overall, I think Mikko has gotten up to speed far quicker than even I had anticipated. 

Look, the points are going to come.  How many posts and crossbars has he hit?  How many passes haven’t quite landed because everyone is still trying to get some semblance of comfort with each other?  In last nights game against the Sabres, he got some production – that was nice.  What was nicer?  How about how he was using his body below the goal line?  Or how he was bodying people off the puck in the neutral zone?  Or how he was being defensively sound when a defenseman pinched, moving to the point to cover for his teammate?  I noticed him doing all these things – and that’s encouraging.  He’s playing our style.  And these are all the things that, when done in the system that we play, will lead to rewards. 

As fans, we wanted Mikko Rantanen to come in and save the world.  To be the one to put up four points a night.  But guess what – he’s one of 19 guys on the ice for the team at various stretches of the game.  He can’t be on the ice for all 60 minutes of the game.  It’s impossible.  

The first line of the song (and all others) are supposed to be contradictions of each other.  Come as you are, as you were, as I want you to be – in the case of Mikko Rantanen, those are three totally different things.  As fans, I urge patience.  He’s going to get there. 

“Take your time, hurry up, the choice is yours, don’t be late…”

All of that above to get to this – he has a contract in hand (north of $100 million over 8 years) that he has not signed yet.  To me, this makes sense.  A person who has only seen the area for about a week’s worth of time since he was traded should be given the opportunity to see what the area is like and if it would be an area and team worth investing in for the next eight years of his life.

I have seen a lot of discourse on the topic – anything from we should trade him before the deadline, to treat him like a rental.  My own podcast co-host thinks we should take the deal off the table for the time being to get his mind off the contract and focus on hockey.  I’ll start with that point first – it is my opinion that if a contract has been on his mind before a contract was offered, then I am very confused.  I can’t, for the life of me, see any reason to pull an offer from a person without some sort of deadline attached to it.  It may be me overthinking things, but wouldn’t that get MORE into his head if we say “yeah, that contract – we can come back to it.  Let’s shelve it for now”?  Additionally, there wasn’t a contract on the table until about a week ago.  It isn’t like he was playing bad before that hockey – he was underperforming for a variety of reasons, but was set up to produce in ways and it hadn’t worked out.  I disagree with this premise that we should shelve things and pull the offer.

With a week to go until the deadline, and since this nine-figure deal hasn’t been signed, it has come up in talk that the Hurricanes may just flip him.  There are several reasons why I highly doubt this will happen – for starters, the return for him wouldn’t be nearly enough for us, as Tulsky and brass have made it clear that we are interested in competing for a Cup this season.  The return would have to include a high-end player of value for us, which would all but obliterate our salary cap situation.  I can’t see teams lining up to send us players of Martin Necas value that have a low cap hit – remember, Rantanen is only costing us about 4.625 right now (thanks for that Chicago).

The second reason why I believe a trade is a no go is for reasons I already stated – our executive leadership believes we have a product that can win.  The other side to that is that the East is wide open currently, so anyone in playoff position should feel confident in their chances. 

Some are saying to put a deadline on it – I am on the fence about this in large part because I don’t think a deadline is going to help make that decision for him, especially if the organization is putting that deadline on March 7^th.  The fact is, Eric Tulsky made it very clear that he didn’t expect Mikko Rantanen to make a decision for the next 8 years of his life immediately, which is precisely would a March 7^th deadline would give him.  I mentioned an after the regular season but before the playoffs type deadline – but even then, it would likely be a dark cloud over the team if he decides to test free agency.  All that to say, it probably isn’t worth it to rush it. 

I have heard plenty of chatter about the dollars and cents of the deal and how he should just take it.  The fact is (and you can disagree, but it is 100% a fact) there are 31 other franchises that can offer Mikko the exact same money if they wanted to (not the year total, but the cash).  They can move parts to make the finances work.  The money isn’t the issue for Mikko – the real drivers for him will be (in my eyes):

• Team construction – with so many players signed into the future (Aho, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Jarvis, Slavin) and so many other younger players coming into the fold (Nadeau, Blake, Nikishin, Morrow), I can’t see why someone wouldn’t want to come into the organization for the next eight seasons and try to land multiple Cups with a core like that.  That said, Mikko must make that decision for himself.
• Production – I have said this before, but I want to articulate it here – if Mikko Rantanen wants to be a perennial 100 point plus producer, he’d have a hard time doing it in the Carolina Hurricanes system.  Not a knock on Mikko or anyone on the team.  This boils down to time on ice – playing a man-on-man system takes a lot out of you – and so Rod tends to roll all four of his lines with a bit closer time distribution than other teams.  It’s not impossible, but improbable.  He would be a centerpiece to our offense, so he’ll have plenty of chances – but I wouldn’t count on 100 points plus.
• A side note to this – I do see people clamming up at the idea of paying top dollar to someone who wouldn’t be producing any higher than, say, Aho last season.  I respectfully disagree with that argument.  Point production is one of many factors an organization looks at to determine salary and value.  Rantanen would be every bit worth the “over payment” some think a $13-$14m plus deal would be.
• Location – It has been said that Mikko is from a quieter area in Finland and Raleigh may just be a solid home for him long term because of the quiet nature of the media here.  I like to hear it, but would it really be a factor?  Who knows?  I will say this – people have said they like playing for Rod Brind’Amour – so he seems to be a draw.  But people have also left – looking for greener pastures elsewhere.  Adam Fox said he’d never sign a contract here.  Jake Guentzel decided at the start of free agency that he would be better served to walk and head to Tampa.  And frankly, while it will always be an unknown, I couldn’t see Martin Necas signing onboard to stay in Carolina once his UFA year came up.  Is it the style of play that is a deterrent or is it the location of the franchise? 

Money plays a small factor, but an insignificant one in my eyes.  Leadership can up the ante if they choose to.  The three factors above are what will ultimately drive his decision.  And if I am being honest, those should be his drivers.  The cash will be there.  So take your time, Mikko – make the decision that is right for you. 

As I close, I want to point out again that I want Mikko Rantanen as a Carolina Hurricane.  And I think we have a pretty good shot to keep him.  I like our chances more with Mikko re-signing than I liked our chances of re-signing Guentzel last season (and we were close to re-signing him).  His decision isn’t going to rest on a random game in Toronto when we got ambushed in the first period.  And our 5-2 beat down of the Sabres isn’t going to sway his opinion either.  In the end, Mikko needs some time to really consider what he wants his next 8 years to look like.  If that is in a Carolina Hurricanes sweater – that’s great!  If he feels he can ‘come as he is’ and make a real impact to this team long term, I am for it.  My advice to him – ‘take your time…the choice is yours’.  We have a great thing set up for the next several years.  Mikko has a chance to be a large part of a special run for this franchise.  The Cup window is open – and even if it is just a one year rental, I believe we have a great opportunity and a great future ahead of us.